1570-1750 Estimated Population

The Drive to Measure Population Growth

During the latter half of the 18th Century a debate had developed over whether the population of Great Britain was increasing or stable. If the population was increasing, could the country continue to sustain its inhabitants? In 1796, the statistician John Rickman wrote ‘Thoughts on the Utility and Facility of a general enumeration of the People of the British Empire’ and called for a nationwide census. Meanwhile, Thomas Malthus developed what became known as the Malthusian Theory after his 1798 work entitled ‘An Essay on the Principle of Population’. As if on cue, bad harvests then followed.

In 1800 the MP Charles Abbot engaged John Rickman (whose writings Abbot had read) to be his Private Secretary. By the end of the year, Abbot had introduced the Population Bill which Rickman was largely credited with drafting. This Bill successfully passed into law as the Population Act (or Census Act) which legislated for the first UK Census of 1801. Rickman was then appointed to conduct the 1801 Census, and went on to conduct the 1811, 1821 and 1831 censuses.

The full title of the Population Act outlined Rickman’s objectives: “An Act for the taking an Account of the Population of Great Britain, and the Increase or Diminution thereof”. The intention was clear: to gather population numbers and to measure population growth (or reduction); and Rickman’s original ambition was limited to measuring the extent of population growth in the 18th Century.

The Importance of Parish Records

As the 1801 Census was the first UK Census, the only way historic population numbers could be gathered was by relying on parish records of baptisms, marriages and burials. Two factors greatly enhanced the quality of Parish records in England and Wales.

Firstly, in 1538, Thomas Cromwell issued an injunction to the Clergy of England and Wales requiring them to keep parish records in good order and this injunction was repeated under subsequent Tudor monarchs. In 1603 the newly established Church of England ensured adequate records were maintained.

Secondly, the 1753 Marriage Act (‘An Act for the better preventing of clandestine marriages’) required every marriage to be registered (although it did only refer to Church of England, Jewish and Quaker marriages).

Neither the various requirements to keep parish records in good order nor the Marriage Act extended to Scotland. As a result, it was only in England and Wales that the 1801 Census required the Clergy to provide the following information:

“What was the Number of Baptisms and Burials in your Parish, Township, or Place, in the several Years 1700, 1710, 1720, 1730, 1740, 1750, 1760, 1770, 1780 and each subsequent Year, to the 31st Day of December 1800, distinguishing Males from Females?”

“What has been the Number of Marriages in your Parish, Township, or Place, in each Year, from the Year 1734 inclusive to the End of the Year 1800?”

In Scotland, the responsibility for collecting this information fell on the ‘schoolmaster’ or ‘other fit person’ i.e. the same official who was responsible for gathering other census information relating to current population and house numbers. As a result, when Rickman published his ‘Estimate of the diminution of population during the last century’, the numbers relating to Scotland were far less accurate; only 99 Scottish parishes out of 900 were able to furnish the required information.



From the information Rickman had gathered from the Parish Records following the 1801 Census, he was able to measure the population growth during the 18th Century using the ‘Rule of Proportion’. Two tables were produced; one for England and Wales and a far less accurate one for Scotland. A summary of his findings are shown below:

England & Wales - population estimate 1700 - 1801

In the Year	Population* of England & Wales	Population* of Scotland	Total
1700	5,475,000	1,048,000	6,523,000
1710	5,240,000	1,270,000	6,510,000
1720	5,565,000	1,390,000	6,955,000
1730	5,796,000	1,309,000	7,105,000
1740	6,064,000	1,222,,000	6,064,000
1750	6,467,000	1,403,000	7,870,000
1760	6,736,000	1,363,000	8,099,000
1770	7,428,000	1,434,000	8,862,000
1780	7,953,000	1,458,000	9,411,000
1785	8,016,000	1,475,000	9,491,000
1790	8,675,000	1,567,000	10,242,000
1795	9,055,000	1,669,000	10,724,000
1801	9,168,000*	1,652,370*	10,820,370*
*exclusive of 'Soldiers and Mariners'. A 'thirtieth' was added to the total to 'ascertain the Population of any distinct part'.
Source: Census 1801. Enumeration Extract. Observations. p. 9-10 Estimation of the diminution of population during the last century.

Rickman was able to prove that the population of Great Britain had increased significantly over the course of the 18th Century; successive censuses would now able to plot population trends over a significantly longer period.

Rickman’s attempt to estimate the population of England & Wales from 1570 to 1750

In the 1831 Census, Rickman asked the Clergy to provide a statement on the condition of their parish records dating back to 1570. In 1836, Rickman then wrote to those Clergy who had confirmed the existence of such parish records, and asked them to furnish him with the total number of baptisms, burials, and marriages at 1570, 1600, 1630, 1670, 1700, and 1750. For each of these years, he also asked for numbers of baptisms, burials and marriages in the year immediately before and after to ensure greater accuracy.

Estimated Population 1570 - 1750

Date	England	Wales	England & Wales	Increased population growth
1570	3,737,841	422,479	4,160,320
1600	4,460,454	351,264	4,811,718	15.6%
1630	5,225,263	375,254	5,600,517	16.3%
1670	5,395,185	378,461	5,773,646	3%
1700	5,653,061	391,947	6,045,008	4.7%
1750	6,066,041	450,994	6,517,035	7.8%

Rickman’s calculations were necessarily flawed; he had to assume that the proportion of baptisms, marriages and deaths had remained constant which did not allow for natural disasters, wars or the growth in non-conformism. Nevertheless, his figures are still of great use, particularly because he focused on individual counties. Sadly, he died in 1840 but his findings were passed to the Home Office and published in the 1841 Census.